With one round to go in the group stage, all three remaining MLS teams still have a chance to advance. In my eyes, one is a shoe-in, one is a tossup and one needs a well-placed outbreak of swine flu among their rivals to advance.
Houston is currently in third place, but they hold the tiebreaker with Arabe Unido. To advance, Houston must win against Isidro Metapan and Arabe Unido must lose to Pachuca. With Metapan winless and scoreless in five group stage games, the Dynamo have to like their chances of gaining a win. The problem is that Pachuca has already punched their ticket and may not especially care about their tie with Unido. As an MLS fan, you have to hope that Pachuca wants some payback for the 4-1 loss they suffered in Panama.
My take: 50% chance Houston advances
DC is level on points with Marathon of Honduras and holds the tiebreaker going into the last round. As long as United matches Marathon's result, they advance. The problem is that Marathon plays winless San Juan Jabloteh, and DC plays Toluca... in Mexico. Did I happen to mention no MLS team has even won in Mexico? Oh, and their first-string keeper is out with an injury. Let's face it United is totally hosed.
My Take: 5% chance United advances.
The Crew control their destiny. They are two points ahead of Saprissa, and can guarantee advancing with a tie or win against the Puerto Rico Islanders regardless of what the Purple Monster does against Cruz Azul. It's a tricky tie for the Crew, but one they should be able to handle.
My Take: 80% chance Club Massive advances.