MLS Gets Just One to the Champions League Knockouts

Congrats to the Columbus Crew whose tie in Bayamon, Puerto Rico was enough to punch their ticket into the CONCACAF Champions League knockout stages.

Congratulations to DC United as well, who became just the second MLS team to get any sort of a result in Mexico, tying Toluca 1-1. Had Lawson Vaughn not gotten his legs tangled up with Isaac Lopez in the box, DC would have advanced. It makes you wonder how things would have gone if Tom Soehn had actually brought his full squad to Mexico.

No congratulations however for Houston. With their fate in their own hands they managed to give up three goals to Metapan, and lose a clinching game to a team that had not won a game or score a goal in the group stage. Painful...

Can MLS Advance to the Champions League Knockout Stage?

With one round to go in the group stage, all three remaining MLS teams still have a chance to advance. In my eyes, one is a shoe-in, one is a tossup and one needs a well-placed outbreak of swine flu among their rivals to advance.

Houston

Houston is currently in third place, but they hold the tiebreaker with Arabe Unido. To advance, Houston must win against Isidro Metapan and Arabe Unido must lose to Pachuca. With Metapan winless and scoreless in five group stage games, the Dynamo have to like their chances of gaining a win. The problem is that Pachuca has already punched their ticket and may not especially care about their tie with Unido. As an MLS fan, you have to hope that Pachuca wants some payback for the 4-1 loss they suffered in Panama.

My take: 50% chance Houston advances

DC United

DC is level on points with Marathon of Honduras and holds the tiebreaker going into the last round. As long as United matches Marathon's result, they advance. The problem is that Marathon plays winless San Juan Jabloteh, and DC plays Toluca... in Mexico. Did I happen to mention no MLS team has even won in Mexico? Oh, and their first-string keeper is out with an injury. Let's face it United is totally hosed.

My Take: 5% chance United advances.

Columbus

The Crew control their destiny. They are two points ahead of Saprissa, and can guarantee advancing with a tie or win against the Puerto Rico Islanders regardless of what the Purple Monster does against Cruz Azul. It's a tricky tie for the Crew, but one they should be able to handle.

My Take: 80% chance Club Massive advances.

MLS Attendance - Percent of Tickets Sold

One of the folks who commented on the Expansion's Effect on MLS Attendance post pointed out that the Sounders have been seen by over 20% of the people attending a game this year. Another person thought that David Beckham's Flying Circus had probably beaten that mark. (This is in fact true.)

However it turns out that neither of these sides hold the record for the largest percentage of tickets sold to see a given team in a season. That record is currently held by the 1996 Los Angeles Galaxy.

  year team     home    away  tm ttl league ttl % sold
1 1996 LA    462,650 346,210 808,860 2,785,001  29.04
2 2004 DC    258,484 355,289 613,773 2,333,797  26.30
3 1997 LA    330,015 248,179 578,194 2,339,019  24.72
4 2004 LA    357,137 217,411 574,548 2,333,797  24.62
5 1996 Metro 382,360 295,952 678,312 2,785,001  24.36
6 1997 NE    342,762 221,566 564,328 2,339,019  24.13
7 2003 LA    329,752 209,091 538,843 2,234,747  24.11
8 2007 LA    363,782 420,525 784,307 3,270,210  23.98
  2005 LA    387,256 308,241 695,497 2,900,716  23.98
10 1997 DC   267,171 287,944 555,115 2,339,019  23.73

For those wondering, if the season ended today Seattle would end up with the 23rd best mark.

Can MLS Advance?

Here's what the three MLS teams need to do this week to make it into the group stages of the CONCACAF Champions League:

Toronto FC
Down a goal after their home leg, things look fairly bleak. These results would get them through:

• A win by two goals or more
  
• A scoring draw with two or more goals

Winning by one goal would get them to extra time, but if they couldn't get a goal in the first leg, chances are they won't in the return leg either. With their experience parking the bus in front of the goal from last year's tournament, I expect Colin Clarke's men to advance.

DC United
The 1-1 tie at RFK didn't completely kill their chances of advancing, but they absolutely have to score in El Salvador. They advance with:

• A win
• A scoring draw with two or more goals

It doesn't sound much better than Toronto's plight, but any scoring draw gets them to extra time and potentially into penalties.

New York Red Bulls
OK -- hands up if you expected the Red Bulls to have the best chance of advancing to the group stage... Mrs. Osorio, you can put your hand down now. Coming away with a 2-2 tie in their away leg was a huge result. There are many ways NY can advance:

• A win
• Any draw with less than two goals scored

A loss still ruins things for NYRB, but even a 2-2 tie only forces extra time. If the Red Bulls can keep from scoring another own goal, they just might make it through.

MLS Alumni on the Move

A couple of MLS alums have found new teams. After regaining his scoring touch in Paraguay, Carlos Ruiz has moved from Apertura champs Olimpia to Mexican club Puebla. One of the best strikers in league history, Ruiz still ranks 8th on the all-time MLS goal scoring list.

Puebla recently lost another former FC Dallas player when Ramon Nunez moved to Cruz Azul. Nunez logged almost 4,500 minutes in MLS, scoring 14 goals and 12 assists in 79 appearances between 2004 and 2007.

On another continent, former Minnesota Thunder, New York Red Bulls and DC United player Francis "Grandpa" Doe has signed on with Egyptian powers Al Ahly. Doe scored four goals in 23 appearances spread over three seasons in MLS.

Centurions II

This past week DC United's Jaime Moreno became the only MLS player to reach career marks of both 100 goals and 100 assists. To put that into perspective, there are only four 100-goal scorers in league history (Moreno leads with 122) and just five 100-assist men.

It is possible that two players could join the 100 goal club this season. Taylor Twellman needs just one more strike. Landon Donovan needs 14 more goals which seems possible after his stellar performance from a year ago. If he doesn't make it this year, Donovan may never do it. I fully expect him to jump across the Atlantic before the start of next year, and if he latches on somewhere, he's unlikely to be back any time soon.

It's going to be a long time before we see another player reach 100 assists. No active player has even 75 assists. It's equally unlikely that Moreno will ever own the top spot on the assists chart since Steve Ralston is still playing and has a nearly 30 assist lead on him.

Do-overs

This week DC United acquired Christian Gomez from the Colorado Rapids. Yes -- that Christian Gomez -- the one DC couldn't unload fast enough last year in order to pursue Designated Player washout Marcello Gallardo.

United was somehow able to pawn Gallardo off on River Plate, freeing them up to reacquire Gomez, along with a rookie keeper and an international player slot. The cost? Ivan Guerrero, a 2nd round pick and the DP slot they acquired in the original trade.

If you sum up the two trades, DC essentially gave up a very good midfielder in Guerrero for an unknown goalkeeper and the opportunity to rent Gallardo for roughly half a season's worth of games. Ugh.

Gallardo vs Gomez

Before the season started, DC United inked their first Designated Player - Marcello Gallardo. To make room for the crafty Argentinian, DC sent perennial all-star and the barra's favorite drummer Christian Gomez to the Colorado Rapids in exchange for a first round pick in the 2009 Superdraft and the always intriguing "future considerations."

The common logic was that DC needed to blow up the team to win some silverware, and that Gallardo would be the mastermind of the new DC attack. So, with less than a third of the season left, are they on track? Is DC really any better off with Gallardo than they were when Gomez ran the attack?

The stats so far:

Gomez 19 games (1373 min) 3 goals, 6 assists
Gallardo 12 games (995 min) 4 goals, 3 assists


Gallardo has spent a fair amount of time injured this year. He didn't contribute anything to United's run to the US Open Cup final, nor did his presence keep them from being bounced from the CONCACAF Champions Cup. As a neutral fan Colorado looks to be slightly ahead on this deal... but the remaining scenarios make this interesting:

1. If Colorado wins MLS Cup with Gomez, the Rapids win this hands down.
2. If DC wins MLS Cup and Gallardo contributes mightily, Kevin Payne will have achieved his objective.
3. If DC wins the CONCACAF Champions League with Gallardo running the attack, that would also be a significant trophy.
4. DC still has a well-placed SuperDraft pick to use. If it's still even at the end of the year and DC ends up with a real stud from the draft, the balance of this deal could shift in their favor.

It should be interesting to see how this pans out. I'll revisit this at the end of the year.