Three stinking minutes. All Real Salt Lake had to do was hold out for another three minutes last night and they would have become the first American team to beat a Mexican team in Mexico during an official competition. Instead they managed to give up three goals from the 87th minute onward and go on to lose 5-4 to Cruz Azul. They even managed to score a goal of their own in there to level at 4-4 and managed to screw that up as well.
Un-frickin-believable.
Showing posts with label real salt lake. Show all posts
Showing posts with label real salt lake. Show all posts
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Friday, September 25, 2009
MLS Attendance: The Sophomore Slump
With the impending addition of franchises in Philly, Vancouver and Portland, I thought it would be interesting to see how much of a "sophomore slump" expansion franchises experienced in regards to attendance.
Here are the numbers for the recent expansion teams, as well as Houston who moved from San Jose in 2006. The Year 1 number is the mean attendance. The successive year numbers are the percent difference compared to the team's first year.
The stat line for Chivas USA shows the danger of using the mean attendance, rather than the median. In 2006, they hosted the Revolution as part of a doubleheader that included Chivas Guadalajara. That game drew over 92,000 fans -- almost 30% of their total attendance for the year. If you factor out that anomaly, their attendance looks like this:
What surprised me about the numbers is that for most teams, attendance kept falling for two years, rather than just one. Houston and Toronto managed to buck that trend.
There has been recent buzz that Seattle has a 6,000 person waiting list for season tickets, and as such may raise their seating capacity next season. If they in fact see a significant boost to attendance in their second season, they would be the first expansion franchise to do so, further underlining how amazing that franchise's support has been.
To be fair, Toronto could probably sell more tickets right now, but they can't expand their capacity without some major construction.
Here are the numbers for the recent expansion teams, as well as Houston who moved from San Jose in 2006. The Year 1 number is the mean attendance. The successive year numbers are the percent difference compared to the team's first year.
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
Chicago 17,887 -10.5 -25.2 -8.4
Chivas USA 17,080 16.2 -16.2 -11.5
Salt Lake 18,037 -9.3 -11.5 -10.3
Houston 18,935 -16.1 -10.5 -14.9*
Toronto 20,130 0.0 +1.0* n/a
* season still in progress
The stat line for Chivas USA shows the danger of using the mean attendance, rather than the median. In 2006, they hosted the Revolution as part of a doubleheader that included Chivas Guadalajara. That game drew over 92,000 fans -- almost 30% of their total attendance for the year. If you factor out that anomaly, their attendance looks like this:
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
Chivas USA 17,080 -12.3 -16.2 -11.5
What surprised me about the numbers is that for most teams, attendance kept falling for two years, rather than just one. Houston and Toronto managed to buck that trend.
There has been recent buzz that Seattle has a 6,000 person waiting list for season tickets, and as such may raise their seating capacity next season. If they in fact see a significant boost to attendance in their second season, they would be the first expansion franchise to do so, further underlining how amazing that franchise's support has been.
To be fair, Toronto could probably sell more tickets right now, but they can't expand their capacity without some major construction.
Sunday, September 06, 2009
Expansion's Effect on MLS Attendance
There's an assumption that expansion teams dramatically help league-wide attendance in their first year. While it's true that these team usually draw above the league average at home, their overall impact is actually a lot less than I expected. The reason is that these teams don't draw especially well on the road.
In 2007 Toronto came into the league, and average attendance was just 0.75% higher including their games.
Chivas USA and Real Salt Lake joined in 2005, and average attendance was 3.82% higher factoring in their games. This was helped in part by the Superclassico which drove Chivas' "road" attendance significantly above the league average.
In 1998, the Fire and Miami Fusion joined the league. Average attendance was just 0.48% higher when their games are included. Oddly enough, the Fusion's road numbers were actually higher than the league average, but their home attendance more than offset this. If you factor out the Fusion, and just include the Fire's numbers, the attendance was 2.18% better off with them in the league.
This brings us to to this year. Seattle's phenomenal home support really has been a boon to the league average. Their 30,000+ average thus far has actually led to an 8.18% increase in average attendance even though their average road attendance is roughly 1,200 fans below the league average.
In 2007 Toronto came into the league, and average attendance was just 0.75% higher including their games.
total att. games mean
2007 all 3,270,210 195 16,770
TOR home 301,947 15 20,130
TOR away 221,650 15 14,777
totals w/o TOR 2,746,613 165 16,646
Chivas USA and Real Salt Lake joined in 2005, and average attendance was 3.82% higher factoring in their games. This was helped in part by the Superclassico which drove Chivas' "road" attendance significantly above the league average.
total att. games mean
2005 all 2,900,716 192 15,108
CHV home 273,284 16 17,080
CHV away 268,176 16 16,761
RSL home 288,586 16 18,037
RSL away 207,985 16 12,999
adj. totals 1,862,685 128 14,552
In 1998, the Fire and Miami Fusion joined the league. Average attendance was just 0.48% higher when their games are included. Oddly enough, the Fusion's road numbers were actually higher than the league average, but their home attendance more than offset this. If you factor out the Fusion, and just include the Fire's numbers, the attendance was 2.18% better off with them in the league.
total att. games mean
1998 all 2,747,897 192 14,312
CHI home 286,190 16 17,887
CHI away 220,734 16 13,796
MIA home 164,548 16 10,284
MIA away 253,269 16 15,829
adj. totals 1,823,156 128 14,243
This brings us to to this year. Seattle's phenomenal home support really has been a boon to the league average. Their 30,000+ average thus far has actually led to an 8.18% increase in average attendance even though their average road attendance is roughly 1,200 fans below the league average.
total att. games mean
2009 all 2,755,194 175 15,744
sea home 397,628 13 30,587
sea away 159,951 11 14,541
totals w/o SEA 2,197,615 151 14,554
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