MLS Attendance: Best Seasons

Historically this category has been owned by the Galaxy. More than half of the 20 best seasons belong to the team from Los Angeles. If you look closely, there's some proof that TFKA Metro hasn't always been inept at getting people to come see soccer. With their new home in Harrison opening next year, it will be interesting to see if they might be able to get their attendance back into this lofty company.

   year team         home avg
1  2009 Seattle      30,897
2  1996 Los Angeles  28,916
3  2008 Los Angeles  26,009
4  2007 Los Angeles  24,252
5  2005 Los Angeles  24,204
6  1996 New York     23,898
7  2004 Los Angeles  23,809
8  2003 Los Angeles  21,983
9  1998 Los Angeles  21,784
10 2001 DC           21,518
11 1997 New England  21,423
12 2007 DC           20,967
13 2006 Los Angeles  20,814
14 2001 New York     20,806
15 2002 Colorado     20,690
16 1997 Los Angeles  20,626
17 2009 Los Angeles  20,416
18 2000 Los Angeles  20,400
19 2009 Toronto      20,344
20 2007 Toronto      20,130

Looking at the numbers in regards to how far above the league average each team was, Seattle's inaugural season is absolutely shocking. Not only did they set the record for average attendance, but they almost doubled up the league average. This absolutely shatters the previous mark. Also interesting in my mind is that Toronto has averaged over 20,000 fans each year, but still can't make the top 20 list.

   year team         diff in %
1  2009 Seattle      92.66
2  1996 Los Angeles  66.12
3  2005 Los Angeles  60.20
4  2008 Los Angeles  58.01
5  2004 Los Angeles  53.02
6  1998 Los Angeles  52.21
7  2000 Los Angeles  48.30
8  2003 Los Angeles  47.56
9  1997 New England  46.54
10 2007 Los Angeles  44.62
11 2001 DC           43.83
12 1997 Los Angeles  41.09
13 2001 New York     39.07
14 1996 New York     37.29
15 2000 DC           35.07
16 2006 Los Angeles  34.25
17 1998 New England  34.07
18 2002 Colorado     30.77
19 2000 New York     28.10
20 2006 Chivas USA   27.96

Crew, Sounders to Enter 2010 Champions League

With Chicago's defeat of Chivas USA on Thursday, the Columbus Crew wrapped up the 2009 Supporter's Shield. This feat automatically qualified them for next year's CONCACAF Champions League. Earlier this year, the Seattle Sounders grabbed a slot when they defeated DC United for the US Open Cup Title.

The rest of the field will consist of the MLS Cup Winners and runner up, unless the Crew or Sounders are one of those teams. In that case, the slots will be filled by the team with the most points in the 2009 regular season that hasn't already claimed a spot. At his point, that would be one of Houston, Los Angeles, Chivas USA or the Fire, all of whom are knotted at 45 points going into the last weekend of the season.

Attendance: Jumping From USL-1 to MLS

One of the arguments used against Major League Soccer expansion markets is that they already have a USL-1 team that draws poorly. Now that the Seattle Sounders have jumped ship, there are two franchises we can examine to see if this critique is fair.

• Before Toronto FC came into existence in 2007, the Lynx represented that city in USL-1. They averaged 2,468 fans in 2005 and just over 1,700 fans in 2006.
• Seattle is a similar story. From 2005 and 2008 their average attendance never broke 4,000 fans per game, and dipped below 3,000 in 2005.

This year, Seattle and Toronto are #1 and #2 in attendance within MLS, averaging just over 30,000 and 20,000 fans per game respectively. As you can see from these numbers, the case for using USL-1 attendance numbers to judge a market is tenuous at best. There are just too many other factors in play, including the makeup of each franchise's ownership group.

Major League Soccer has got to be hoping this trend continues. Vancouver and Portland will be coming online in 2011, and both of them have been in the top five of USL-1 attendance each of the last five years. In fact between the two teams there has only been one season since 2005 with an average attendance under 5,000 fans per game.

MLS Attendance: The Sophomore Slump

With the impending addition of franchises in Philly, Vancouver and Portland, I thought it would be interesting to see how much of a "sophomore slump" expansion franchises experienced in regards to attendance.

Here are the numbers for the recent expansion teams, as well as Houston who moved from San Jose in 2006. The Year 1 number is the mean attendance. The successive year numbers are the percent difference compared to the team's first year.

           Year 1  Year 2  Year 3  Year 4
Chicago    17,887  -10.5   -25.2    -8.4
Chivas USA 17,080   16.2   -16.2   -11.5
Salt Lake  18,037   -9.3   -11.5   -10.3
Houston    18,935  -16.1   -10.5   -14.9*
Toronto    20,130    0.0   +1.0*    n/a
* season still in progress

The stat line for Chivas USA shows the danger of using the mean attendance, rather than the median. In 2006, they hosted the Revolution as part of a doubleheader that included Chivas Guadalajara. That game drew over 92,000 fans -- almost 30% of their total attendance for the year. If you factor out that anomaly, their attendance looks like this:

           Year 1  Year 2  Year 3  Year 4
Chivas USA 17,080  -12.3   -16.2   -11.5

What surprised me about the numbers is that for most teams, attendance kept falling for two years, rather than just one. Houston and Toronto managed to buck that trend.

There has been recent buzz that Seattle has a 6,000 person waiting list for season tickets, and as such may raise their seating capacity next season. If they in fact see a significant boost to attendance in their second season, they would be the first expansion franchise to do so, further underlining how amazing that franchise's support has been.

To be fair, Toronto could probably sell more tickets right now, but they can't expand their capacity without some major construction.

MLS Attendance - Percent of Tickets Sold

One of the folks who commented on the Expansion's Effect on MLS Attendance post pointed out that the Sounders have been seen by over 20% of the people attending a game this year. Another person thought that David Beckham's Flying Circus had probably beaten that mark. (This is in fact true.)

However it turns out that neither of these sides hold the record for the largest percentage of tickets sold to see a given team in a season. That record is currently held by the 1996 Los Angeles Galaxy.

  year team     home    away  tm ttl league ttl % sold
1 1996 LA    462,650 346,210 808,860 2,785,001  29.04
2 2004 DC    258,484 355,289 613,773 2,333,797  26.30
3 1997 LA    330,015 248,179 578,194 2,339,019  24.72
4 2004 LA    357,137 217,411 574,548 2,333,797  24.62
5 1996 Metro 382,360 295,952 678,312 2,785,001  24.36
6 1997 NE    342,762 221,566 564,328 2,339,019  24.13
7 2003 LA    329,752 209,091 538,843 2,234,747  24.11
8 2007 LA    363,782 420,525 784,307 3,270,210  23.98
  2005 LA    387,256 308,241 695,497 2,900,716  23.98
10 1997 DC   267,171 287,944 555,115 2,339,019  23.73

For those wondering, if the season ended today Seattle would end up with the 23rd best mark.

Expansion's Effect on MLS Attendance

There's an assumption that expansion teams dramatically help league-wide attendance in their first year. While it's true that these team usually draw above the league average at home, their overall impact is actually a lot less than I expected. The reason is that these teams don't draw especially well on the road.

In 2007 Toronto came into the league, and average attendance was just 0.75% higher including their games.

               total att.   games   mean
2007 all        3,270,210    195    16,770
TOR home          301,947     15    20,130
TOR away          221,650     15    14,777
totals w/o TOR  2,746,613    165    16,646

Chivas USA and Real Salt Lake joined in 2005, and average attendance was 3.82% higher factoring in their games. This was helped in part by the Superclassico which drove Chivas' "road" attendance significantly above the league average.

                total att.  games    mean
2005 all         2,900,716    192   15,108
CHV home           273,284     16   17,080
CHV away           268,176     16   16,761
RSL home           288,586     16   18,037
RSL away           207,985     16   12,999
adj. totals      1,862,685    128   14,552

In 1998, the Fire and Miami Fusion joined the league. Average attendance was just 0.48% higher when their games are included. Oddly enough, the Fusion's road numbers were actually higher than the league average, but their home attendance more than offset this. If you factor out the Fusion, and just include the Fire's numbers, the attendance was 2.18% better off with them in the league.

               total att.     games     mean
1998 all        2,747,897      192    14,312
CHI home          286,190       16    17,887
CHI away          220,734       16    13,796
MIA home          164,548       16    10,284
MIA away          253,269       16    15,829
adj. totals     1,823,156      128    14,243

This brings us to to this year. Seattle's phenomenal home support really has been a boon to the league average. Their 30,000+ average thus far has actually led to an 8.18% increase in average attendance even though their average road attendance is roughly 1,200 fans below the league average.

                total att.     games    mean
2009 all         2,755,194      175    15,744
sea home           397,628       13    30,587
sea away           159,951       11    14,541
totals w/o SEA   2,197,615      151    14,554

Intriguing MLS Newcomers

There are quite a few interesting players coming into the league this year. Here are a couple to keep an eye on.

Fredy Montero - Forward - Seattle
If I had posted this last week as intended, I would look like a genius right now. Montero is only 21 years old, yet has led the Colombian league in scoring twice. A pure finisher, Montero has already drawn interest from the likes of Real Betis and if his brace on opening day is any indication, his silky skills may be heading for Europe before very long. Enjoy him while you can.

Santiago Hirsig - Midfielder - Kansas City

For their second Argentine player, the Wizards imported Santiago Hirsig. A veteran of over 200 top flight games in his homeland, Hirsig helped San Lorenzo win the 2008 Apertura title. Word on the street is that San Lorenzo wanted Hirsig back, but he left over unpaid wages. Lacking a true playmaker for a number of years, he could be the missing piece of the puzzle on offense for Kansas City.

Osvaldo Alonso - Midfielder - Seattle

Those spoiling for a comparison between the level of USL1 and MLS have their chance with Alonso, who won the USL1 Rookie of the Year award last season. Chivas USA had a chance to sign the Cuban defector last year, but he rejected a low-ball offer from them. If his performance last week is any indication a number of MLS teams are probably kicking themselves for not scooping up the dynamic midfielder last year.

Let's Make That 30,000 Fans...

A few days ago I commented that the Seattle Sounders had sold over 20,000 season tickets. They have been so successful that they are changing the soccer configuration of Qwest Field to accommodate 27,700 fans per game, with a cap of 22,000 season tickets.

Sales have been so strong that they have actually opened up more seats for their opening match against the Red Bulls to fit a crowd of expected to be north of 30,000 people.

That's not the only success story this month. The Montreal Impact packed 55,571 fans into Olympic Stadium for their CONCACAF Champions League game against Santos Laguna of Mexico. This is easily the biggest crowd of the tournament thus far.

Note to MLS -- evidently we need more teams near the Canadian border. Portland Timbers, you're on the clock.

That's Right, Twenty THOUSAND

According to the Puget Sound Business Journal, the Seattle Sounders have already sold 20,000 season tickets for their inaugural season. Assuming sales in other cities remain consistent, this means that MLS should have three teams average more than 20,000 fans per game next year (Los Angeles and Toronto both accomplished the feat the last two years running.)

To put this into perspective, the Seattle Mariners have only sold 14,000 season tickets for next year. I realize that baseball season tickets are much more expensive (due to the large number of games) but it's still impressive that the Sounders are likely to regularly sell out the 24,500 seat soccer capacity for Qwest Field next year.

To add even more perspective, the USL1 version of the Sounders averaged a touch under 3,400 fans per game over the last two years. It just goes to show that USL1 attendance can be pretty much ignored when sizing up potential MLS markets.

Seattle - Havana of the North

There must be something about Starbucks that lures Cuban soccer players to Seattle. Four years after Maykel Galindo joined the Seattle Sounders, Drew Carey's new club has lured Osvaldo Alonso to the birthplace of grunge. Fresh off his USL1 rookie of the year season with the Charleston Battery, Alonso is poised to patrol the Sounders midfield in front of Kasey Keller.

Rumor has it that fellow defector Reinier Alcantara may also be coming to MLS. His likely destination is Chivas USA, where he would hook up with... Maykel Galindo. It's a small, small world.

The Onion Strikes Again

I've been meaning to post this for a long time, but kept forgetting. Once again The Onion brings the funny with their take on the new Major League Soccer franchise in Seattle: Seattle's Disastrous Sports Year Continues With Addition Of Major League Soccer Team.

Another great MLS-related article from The Onion archives: MLS Free Agent Holding Out For Money which concludes "FC Dallas has asked the league to intervene, saying that actually paying Ruiz with money would put them over the $1.2 thousand MLS salary cap."

How do you say "corked bat" in Swedish?

Seattle Sounders fans can't be too happy right now. Midfielder, Designated Player and former underwear fancier Freddie Ljungberg had hip surgery this week which will knock him out of action for 10-12 weeks. He will thus miss most of training camp and might not be ready for the start of the season.

Sadly some folks must have seen this coming. He's had on-again, off-again hip and ankle problems as far back as 2005 when he played for Arsenal. He also had a bizarre bout of blood poisoning supposedly brought on by one of his large tattoos.

Seattle better hope this is a blip on the radar, otherwise they will end up being the Baltimore Orioles of MLS (minus the cool retro stadium.) In 1998 Baltimore signed Albert Belle to a five-year, $65 million contract. In return the Orioles ended up with one good and one average season followed by three years on the disabled list so an insurance policy could pay his guaranteed salary. So what felled the once mighty Albert Belle... *drum roll* a degenerative hip problem.