MLS Attendance: Best Seasons

Historically this category has been owned by the Galaxy. More than half of the 20 best seasons belong to the team from Los Angeles. If you look closely, there's some proof that TFKA Metro hasn't always been inept at getting people to come see soccer. With their new home in Harrison opening next year, it will be interesting to see if they might be able to get their attendance back into this lofty company.

   year team         home avg
1  2009 Seattle      30,897
2  1996 Los Angeles  28,916
3  2008 Los Angeles  26,009
4  2007 Los Angeles  24,252
5  2005 Los Angeles  24,204
6  1996 New York     23,898
7  2004 Los Angeles  23,809
8  2003 Los Angeles  21,983
9  1998 Los Angeles  21,784
10 2001 DC           21,518
11 1997 New England  21,423
12 2007 DC           20,967
13 2006 Los Angeles  20,814
14 2001 New York     20,806
15 2002 Colorado     20,690
16 1997 Los Angeles  20,626
17 2009 Los Angeles  20,416
18 2000 Los Angeles  20,400
19 2009 Toronto      20,344
20 2007 Toronto      20,130

Looking at the numbers in regards to how far above the league average each team was, Seattle's inaugural season is absolutely shocking. Not only did they set the record for average attendance, but they almost doubled up the league average. This absolutely shatters the previous mark. Also interesting in my mind is that Toronto has averaged over 20,000 fans each year, but still can't make the top 20 list.

   year team         diff in %
1  2009 Seattle      92.66
2  1996 Los Angeles  66.12
3  2005 Los Angeles  60.20
4  2008 Los Angeles  58.01
5  2004 Los Angeles  53.02
6  1998 Los Angeles  52.21
7  2000 Los Angeles  48.30
8  2003 Los Angeles  47.56
9  1997 New England  46.54
10 2007 Los Angeles  44.62
11 2001 DC           43.83
12 1997 Los Angeles  41.09
13 2001 New York     39.07
14 1996 New York     37.29
15 2000 DC           35.07
16 2006 Los Angeles  34.25
17 1998 New England  34.07
18 2002 Colorado     30.77
19 2000 New York     28.10
20 2006 Chivas USA   27.96

MLS Attendance: Worst Seasons

As a followup to the post on the teams seen by the smallest percentage of fans I thought it would be interesting to see the worst seasons in terms of average home attendance.

year team         home avg
2000 Miami        7,460
2003 Dallas       7,906
1998 Kansas City  8,073
1999 Kansas City  8,183
1999 Miami        8,689
1997 Kansas City  9,058
2004 Dallas       9,088
2000 Kansas City  9,112
2000 Tampa Bay    9,452
2001 San Jose     9,635
1997 Dallas       9,678
2005 Kansas City  9,691
2009 Kansas City  10,053
1996 Colorado     10,213
1998 Miami        10,284
1996 Colorado     10,213
1998 Tampa Bay    10,312
2003 San Jose     10,466
2001 Tampa Bay    10,479
2008 Kansas City  10,686

From these numbers, it looks pretty grim for soccer in Kansas City. Owners of seven of the 20 worst seasons for attendance in league history they are also the only team to make the list in the last five years... which they did three times. This is interesting since six of the seasons belong to teams which don't exist any more.

However just looking at the raw average attendance doesn't control for the overall attendance ebbs and flows of the league. This list shows the worst home attendances relative to the league average.

year team         diff in %
2003 Dallas       -46.93
2000 Miami        -45.77
1998 Kansas City  -43.59
1999 Kansas City  -42.71
2004 Dallas       -41.59
1996 Colorado     -41.32
1999 Miami        -39.16
1997 Kansas City  -38.04
2009 Kansas City  -37.31
2005 Kansas City  -35.85
2001 San Jose     -35.60
2008 Kansas City  -35.08
1997 Dallas       -33.80
2000 Kansas City  -33.76
1996 Tampa Bay    -32.91
2000 Tampa Bay    -31.29
2007 Kansas City  -30.91
2001 Tampa Bay    -29.96
2003 San Jose     -29.75
2002 San Jose     -29.53

Measuring this way, Dallas' abysmal 2003 season takes over the top spot, underperforming the league average by a whopping 46%. Sadly the Wizards actually add an eighth season to the wall of shame. To be fair, their last two seasons have been played near the capacity of their minuscule temporary stadium, but it'll be interesting to see what happens when they move into their new home. If you're a Wizards fan (or owner,) you have to hope things change drastically.

MLS Attendance - Teams Seen By the Smallest Percentage of Fans

Here's the year-end update to which teams had been seen by the smallest percentage of fans in a given season. Mea culpa -- I somehow managed to exclude data from 2008 in the post from earlier this year.

You might notice that this list has a lot of teams from the last couple of years. Thinking about this a bit more, that makes sense, as more teams in the league means each team should receive a smaller slice of the overall attendance pie. I still think this is an interesting stat, but it's probably less useful for historical comparisons than I originally thought.

Here's the list of teams who had the smallest percentage of tickets sold to see them.

   year tm    home    away    tm ttl  leage ttl  %seen
1  2009 KC   150,802 225,771  376,573 3,608,359  10.44
2  2009 DAL  186,612 227,434  414,046 3,608,359  11.47
3  2008 KC   160,286 237,319  397,605 3,456,641  11.50
4  2009 COL  184,963 236,908  421,871 3,608,359  11.69
5  1999 KC   130,924 191,229  322,153 2,742,102  11.75
6  2009 SJ   211,717 219,425  431,142 3,608,359  11.95
7  2009 NY   187,359 245,896  433,255 3,608,359  12.01
8  2008 SJ   205,695 210,563  416,258 3,456,641  12.04
9  2008 COL  204,884 220,131  425,015 3,456,641  12.30
10 2000 MIA  119,352 212,710  332,062 2,641,085  12.57
11 2007 KC   173,784 240,809  414,593 3,270,210  12.68
12 2009 DC   241,322 216,852  458,174 3,608,359  12.70
13 2009 SLK  245,628 217,705  463,333 3,608,359  12.84
14 2008 CLB  219,332 227,115  446,447 3,456,641  12.92
15 2009 HOU  255,712 212,395  468,107 3,608,359  12.97
16 2001 KC   142,402 166,060  308,462 2,363,859  13.05
17 1998 KC   129,163 230,245  359,408 2,747,897  13.08
18 2009 NE   205,977 268,590  474,567 3,608,359  13.15
19 2009 CHV  226,375 248,459  474,834 3,608,359  13.16
20 2007 COL  221,229 215,154  436,383 3,270,210  13.34

MLS Attendance - Teams Seen By the Largest Percentage of Fans

Earlier this year I had a mad posh to see which teams had been seen by the largest percentage of fans in a given season. It was interesting enough (to me at least) that I've created this post to update at the conclusion of each year.

The 2009 season didn't change the leaderboard in the least bit, which is not too surprising as each additional team makes it progressively harder to reach the top twenty.

Here's the list of teams who had the largest percentage of tickets sold to see them.

   year tm   home    away    tm ttl  leage ttl  %seen
1  1996 LA  462,650 346,210  808,860 2,785,001  29.04
2  2004 DC  258,484 355,289  613,773 2,333,797  26.30
3  1997 LA  330,015 248,179  578,194 2,339,019  24.72
4  2004 LA  357,137 217,411  574,548 2,333,797  24.62
5  1996 NY  382,360 295,952  678,312 2,785,001  24.36
6  1997 NE  342,762 221,566  564,328 2,339,019  24.13
7  2003 LA  329,752 209,091  538,843 2,234,747  24.11
8  2007 LA  363,782 420,525  784,307 3,270,210  23.98
   2005 LA  387,256 308,241  695,497 2,900,716  23.98
10 1997 DC  267,171 287,944  555,115 2,339,019  23.73
11 2008 LA  390,132 421,978  812,110 3,456,641  23.49
12 1996 NE  304,392 325,401  629,793 2,785,001  22.61
13 2003 KC  233,594 269,478  503,072 2,234,747  22.51
14 2000 LA  326,392 264,084  590,476 2,641,085  22.36
15 1998 LA  348,549 259,795  608,344 2,747,897  22.14
16 1997 NY  270,388 245,763  516,151 2,339,019  22.07
17 2002 LA  266,664 221,462  488,126 2,215,019  22.04
18 2006 LA  333,016 318,870  651,886 2,976,787  21.90
19 2001 DC  258,213 248,399  506,612 2,363,859  21.43
20 2003 CLB 243,756 233,704  477,460 2,234,747  21.37

Attendance: Jumping From USL-1 to MLS

One of the arguments used against Major League Soccer expansion markets is that they already have a USL-1 team that draws poorly. Now that the Seattle Sounders have jumped ship, there are two franchises we can examine to see if this critique is fair.

• Before Toronto FC came into existence in 2007, the Lynx represented that city in USL-1. They averaged 2,468 fans in 2005 and just over 1,700 fans in 2006.
• Seattle is a similar story. From 2005 and 2008 their average attendance never broke 4,000 fans per game, and dipped below 3,000 in 2005.

This year, Seattle and Toronto are #1 and #2 in attendance within MLS, averaging just over 30,000 and 20,000 fans per game respectively. As you can see from these numbers, the case for using USL-1 attendance numbers to judge a market is tenuous at best. There are just too many other factors in play, including the makeup of each franchise's ownership group.

Major League Soccer has got to be hoping this trend continues. Vancouver and Portland will be coming online in 2011, and both of them have been in the top five of USL-1 attendance each of the last five years. In fact between the two teams there has only been one season since 2005 with an average attendance under 5,000 fans per game.

MLS Attendance: The Sophomore Slump

With the impending addition of franchises in Philly, Vancouver and Portland, I thought it would be interesting to see how much of a "sophomore slump" expansion franchises experienced in regards to attendance.

Here are the numbers for the recent expansion teams, as well as Houston who moved from San Jose in 2006. The Year 1 number is the mean attendance. The successive year numbers are the percent difference compared to the team's first year.

           Year 1  Year 2  Year 3  Year 4
Chicago    17,887  -10.5   -25.2    -8.4
Chivas USA 17,080   16.2   -16.2   -11.5
Salt Lake  18,037   -9.3   -11.5   -10.3
Houston    18,935  -16.1   -10.5   -14.9*
Toronto    20,130    0.0   +1.0*    n/a
* season still in progress

The stat line for Chivas USA shows the danger of using the mean attendance, rather than the median. In 2006, they hosted the Revolution as part of a doubleheader that included Chivas Guadalajara. That game drew over 92,000 fans -- almost 30% of their total attendance for the year. If you factor out that anomaly, their attendance looks like this:

           Year 1  Year 2  Year 3  Year 4
Chivas USA 17,080  -12.3   -16.2   -11.5

What surprised me about the numbers is that for most teams, attendance kept falling for two years, rather than just one. Houston and Toronto managed to buck that trend.

There has been recent buzz that Seattle has a 6,000 person waiting list for season tickets, and as such may raise their seating capacity next season. If they in fact see a significant boost to attendance in their second season, they would be the first expansion franchise to do so, further underlining how amazing that franchise's support has been.

To be fair, Toronto could probably sell more tickets right now, but they can't expand their capacity without some major construction.

MLS Attendance - Smallest % of Tickets Sold

To follow up last week's post about the teams who had been seen by the largest percentage of fans, I ran the numbers to determine which teams had been seen by the smallest percentage of fans.

There have been 35 teams that were seen by less than 15% of the fans attending games that season. The only year no team fell below this threshold was 2002. These are the 10 worst seasons to date:

  year  team   home    away     team ttl league ttl  % sold
1 1999  KC    130,924  191,229  322,153  2,742,102   11.75
2 2000  Miami 119,352  212,710  332,062  2,641,085   12.57
3 2007  KC    173,784  240,809  414,593  3,270,210   12.68
4 2001  KC    142,402  166,060  308,462  2,363,859   13.05
5 1998  KC    129,163  230,245  359,408  2,747,897   13.08
6 2007  COLO  221,229  215,154  436,383  3,270,210   13.34
7 2006  KC    177,322  225,194  402,516  2,976,787   13.52
7 1996  COLO  163,413  213,236  376,649  2,785,001   13.52
9 1998  DAL   175,162  198,315  373,477  2,747,897   13.59
10 2005 KC    155,060  239,894  394,954  2,900,716   13.62

Two franchises have fallen under the 15% line eight different times -- Kansas City and Dallas. That's almost 46% of the total number of seasons under the qualifying line.

Interestingly Colorado is 6th on the list even though they drew better at home than on the road. That has only happened eight times:
2000 DAL, COLO
2005 SJ
2006 CHI
2007 RSL, NE, HOU, COLO

MLS Attendance - Percent of Tickets Sold

One of the folks who commented on the Expansion's Effect on MLS Attendance post pointed out that the Sounders have been seen by over 20% of the people attending a game this year. Another person thought that David Beckham's Flying Circus had probably beaten that mark. (This is in fact true.)

However it turns out that neither of these sides hold the record for the largest percentage of tickets sold to see a given team in a season. That record is currently held by the 1996 Los Angeles Galaxy.

  year team     home    away  tm ttl league ttl % sold
1 1996 LA    462,650 346,210 808,860 2,785,001  29.04
2 2004 DC    258,484 355,289 613,773 2,333,797  26.30
3 1997 LA    330,015 248,179 578,194 2,339,019  24.72
4 2004 LA    357,137 217,411 574,548 2,333,797  24.62
5 1996 Metro 382,360 295,952 678,312 2,785,001  24.36
6 1997 NE    342,762 221,566 564,328 2,339,019  24.13
7 2003 LA    329,752 209,091 538,843 2,234,747  24.11
8 2007 LA    363,782 420,525 784,307 3,270,210  23.98
  2005 LA    387,256 308,241 695,497 2,900,716  23.98
10 1997 DC   267,171 287,944 555,115 2,339,019  23.73

For those wondering, if the season ended today Seattle would end up with the 23rd best mark.

Expansion's Effect on MLS Attendance

There's an assumption that expansion teams dramatically help league-wide attendance in their first year. While it's true that these team usually draw above the league average at home, their overall impact is actually a lot less than I expected. The reason is that these teams don't draw especially well on the road.

In 2007 Toronto came into the league, and average attendance was just 0.75% higher including their games.

               total att.   games   mean
2007 all        3,270,210    195    16,770
TOR home          301,947     15    20,130
TOR away          221,650     15    14,777
totals w/o TOR  2,746,613    165    16,646

Chivas USA and Real Salt Lake joined in 2005, and average attendance was 3.82% higher factoring in their games. This was helped in part by the Superclassico which drove Chivas' "road" attendance significantly above the league average.

                total att.  games    mean
2005 all         2,900,716    192   15,108
CHV home           273,284     16   17,080
CHV away           268,176     16   16,761
RSL home           288,586     16   18,037
RSL away           207,985     16   12,999
adj. totals      1,862,685    128   14,552

In 1998, the Fire and Miami Fusion joined the league. Average attendance was just 0.48% higher when their games are included. Oddly enough, the Fusion's road numbers were actually higher than the league average, but their home attendance more than offset this. If you factor out the Fusion, and just include the Fire's numbers, the attendance was 2.18% better off with them in the league.

               total att.     games     mean
1998 all        2,747,897      192    14,312
CHI home          286,190       16    17,887
CHI away          220,734       16    13,796
MIA home          164,548       16    10,284
MIA away          253,269       16    15,829
adj. totals     1,823,156      128    14,243

This brings us to to this year. Seattle's phenomenal home support really has been a boon to the league average. Their 30,000+ average thus far has actually led to an 8.18% increase in average attendance even though their average road attendance is roughly 1,200 fans below the league average.

                total att.     games    mean
2009 all         2,755,194      175    15,744
sea home           397,628       13    30,587
sea away           159,951       11    14,541
totals w/o SEA   2,197,615      151    14,554