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Introducing Darnell De Guzman.

Well That Didn't Take Long

Less than 24 hours after I opined that a Mexican team had to lose at some point in the CONCACAF Champions League, Toronto FC managed to shock Cruz Azul 2-1 at BMO Field. By defeating last year's runners-up Toronto FC became the first MLS team to beat a Mexican team in the 2+ years of the Champions League. The last time an MLS team defeated a Mexican team in a CONCACAF tournament was April of 2008 when DC United beat Pachuca in the semifinals of the old Champions Cup.

MLS Attendance: Best Seasons

Historically this category has been owned by the Galaxy. More than half of the 20 best seasons belong to the team from Los Angeles. If you look closely, there's some proof that TFKA Metro hasn't always been inept at getting people to come see soccer. With their new home in Harrison opening next year, it will be interesting to see if they might be able to get their attendance back into this lofty company.

   year team         home avg
1  2009 Seattle      30,897
2  1996 Los Angeles  28,916
3  2008 Los Angeles  26,009
4  2007 Los Angeles  24,252
5  2005 Los Angeles  24,204
6  1996 New York     23,898
7  2004 Los Angeles  23,809
8  2003 Los Angeles  21,983
9  1998 Los Angeles  21,784
10 2001 DC           21,518
11 1997 New England  21,423
12 2007 DC           20,967
13 2006 Los Angeles  20,814
14 2001 New York     20,806
15 2002 Colorado     20,690
16 1997 Los Angeles  20,626
17 2009 Los Angeles  20,416
18 2000 Los Angeles  20,400
19 2009 Toronto      20,344
20 2007 Toronto      20,130

Looking at the numbers in regards to how far above the league average each team was, Seattle's inaugural season is absolutely shocking. Not only did they set the record for average attendance, but they almost doubled up the league average. This absolutely shatters the previous mark. Also interesting in my mind is that Toronto has averaged over 20,000 fans each year, but still can't make the top 20 list.

   year team         diff in %
1  2009 Seattle      92.66
2  1996 Los Angeles  66.12
3  2005 Los Angeles  60.20
4  2008 Los Angeles  58.01
5  2004 Los Angeles  53.02
6  1998 Los Angeles  52.21
7  2000 Los Angeles  48.30
8  2003 Los Angeles  47.56
9  1997 New England  46.54
10 2007 Los Angeles  44.62
11 2001 DC           43.83
12 1997 Los Angeles  41.09
13 2001 New York     39.07
14 1996 New York     37.29
15 2000 DC           35.07
16 2006 Los Angeles  34.25
17 1998 New England  34.07
18 2002 Colorado     30.77
19 2000 New York     28.10
20 2006 Chivas USA   27.96

Attendance: Jumping From USL-1 to MLS

One of the arguments used against Major League Soccer expansion markets is that they already have a USL-1 team that draws poorly. Now that the Seattle Sounders have jumped ship, there are two franchises we can examine to see if this critique is fair.

• Before Toronto FC came into existence in 2007, the Lynx represented that city in USL-1. They averaged 2,468 fans in 2005 and just over 1,700 fans in 2006.
• Seattle is a similar story. From 2005 and 2008 their average attendance never broke 4,000 fans per game, and dipped below 3,000 in 2005.

This year, Seattle and Toronto are #1 and #2 in attendance within MLS, averaging just over 30,000 and 20,000 fans per game respectively. As you can see from these numbers, the case for using USL-1 attendance numbers to judge a market is tenuous at best. There are just too many other factors in play, including the makeup of each franchise's ownership group.

Major League Soccer has got to be hoping this trend continues. Vancouver and Portland will be coming online in 2011, and both of them have been in the top five of USL-1 attendance each of the last five years. In fact between the two teams there has only been one season since 2005 with an average attendance under 5,000 fans per game.

MLS Attendance: The Sophomore Slump

With the impending addition of franchises in Philly, Vancouver and Portland, I thought it would be interesting to see how much of a "sophomore slump" expansion franchises experienced in regards to attendance.

Here are the numbers for the recent expansion teams, as well as Houston who moved from San Jose in 2006. The Year 1 number is the mean attendance. The successive year numbers are the percent difference compared to the team's first year.

           Year 1  Year 2  Year 3  Year 4
Chicago    17,887  -10.5   -25.2    -8.4
Chivas USA 17,080   16.2   -16.2   -11.5
Salt Lake  18,037   -9.3   -11.5   -10.3
Houston    18,935  -16.1   -10.5   -14.9*
Toronto    20,130    0.0   +1.0*    n/a
* season still in progress

The stat line for Chivas USA shows the danger of using the mean attendance, rather than the median. In 2006, they hosted the Revolution as part of a doubleheader that included Chivas Guadalajara. That game drew over 92,000 fans -- almost 30% of their total attendance for the year. If you factor out that anomaly, their attendance looks like this:

           Year 1  Year 2  Year 3  Year 4
Chivas USA 17,080  -12.3   -16.2   -11.5

What surprised me about the numbers is that for most teams, attendance kept falling for two years, rather than just one. Houston and Toronto managed to buck that trend.

There has been recent buzz that Seattle has a 6,000 person waiting list for season tickets, and as such may raise their seating capacity next season. If they in fact see a significant boost to attendance in their second season, they would be the first expansion franchise to do so, further underlining how amazing that franchise's support has been.

To be fair, Toronto could probably sell more tickets right now, but they can't expand their capacity without some major construction.

Expansion's Effect on MLS Attendance

There's an assumption that expansion teams dramatically help league-wide attendance in their first year. While it's true that these team usually draw above the league average at home, their overall impact is actually a lot less than I expected. The reason is that these teams don't draw especially well on the road.

In 2007 Toronto came into the league, and average attendance was just 0.75% higher including their games.

               total att.   games   mean
2007 all        3,270,210    195    16,770
TOR home          301,947     15    20,130
TOR away          221,650     15    14,777
totals w/o TOR  2,746,613    165    16,646

Chivas USA and Real Salt Lake joined in 2005, and average attendance was 3.82% higher factoring in their games. This was helped in part by the Superclassico which drove Chivas' "road" attendance significantly above the league average.

                total att.  games    mean
2005 all         2,900,716    192   15,108
CHV home           273,284     16   17,080
CHV away           268,176     16   16,761
RSL home           288,586     16   18,037
RSL away           207,985     16   12,999
adj. totals      1,862,685    128   14,552

In 1998, the Fire and Miami Fusion joined the league. Average attendance was just 0.48% higher when their games are included. Oddly enough, the Fusion's road numbers were actually higher than the league average, but their home attendance more than offset this. If you factor out the Fusion, and just include the Fire's numbers, the attendance was 2.18% better off with them in the league.

               total att.     games     mean
1998 all        2,747,897      192    14,312
CHI home          286,190       16    17,887
CHI away          220,734       16    13,796
MIA home          164,548       16    10,284
MIA away          253,269       16    15,829
adj. totals     1,823,156      128    14,243

This brings us to to this year. Seattle's phenomenal home support really has been a boon to the league average. Their 30,000+ average thus far has actually led to an 8.18% increase in average attendance even though their average road attendance is roughly 1,200 fans below the league average.

                total att.     games    mean
2009 all         2,755,194      175    15,744
sea home           397,628       13    30,587
sea away           159,951       11    14,541
totals w/o SEA   2,197,615      151    14,554

Can MLS Advance?

Here's what the three MLS teams need to do this week to make it into the group stages of the CONCACAF Champions League:

Toronto FC
Down a goal after their home leg, things look fairly bleak. These results would get them through:

• A win by two goals or more
  
• A scoring draw with two or more goals

Winning by one goal would get them to extra time, but if they couldn't get a goal in the first leg, chances are they won't in the return leg either. With their experience parking the bus in front of the goal from last year's tournament, I expect Colin Clarke's men to advance.

DC United
The 1-1 tie at RFK didn't completely kill their chances of advancing, but they absolutely have to score in El Salvador. They advance with:

• A win
• A scoring draw with two or more goals

It doesn't sound much better than Toronto's plight, but any scoring draw gets them to extra time and potentially into penalties.

New York Red Bulls
OK -- hands up if you expected the Red Bulls to have the best chance of advancing to the group stage... Mrs. Osorio, you can put your hand down now. Coming away with a 2-2 tie in their away leg was a huge result. There are many ways NY can advance:

• A win
• Any draw with less than two goals scored

A loss still ruins things for NYRB, but even a 2-2 tie only forces extra time. If the Red Bulls can keep from scoring another own goal, they just might make it through.