Now that we have a couple of years of data to work with, I wanted to know if how teams qualified for the CCL had any correlation to their success. There are four ways to qualify for the tournament:
- Win MLS Cup
- Win the US Open Cup
- Win the Supporters Shield
- Be the MLS Cup Runner Up
If the same team fills more than one of these slots (like Columbus which won MLS Cup and the Supporters Shield in the same year) another team gets one of the slots. In the analysis below, those teams are lumped into the "other" category. For any team that would have qualified in more than one way, I've counted them in BOTH of the appropriate categories below.
I assumed that the winners of the Supporters Shield would have the best record - after all they had the best record over the course of an entire season. It seemed like these teams should be best over the long haul in this sort of tournament. I was a little surprised by what I found.
MLS Cup Runner UpThrough three years, the teams that lost the MLS Cup game have fared the worst. In fact, until this year, no team even made it through to the group stage. These numbers will change after the 2011-12 tournament as all four US teams punched their tickets to the group stage this year.
Team W L T GF GA DIF Win% PPG
2007-08 New England 0 2 0 1 6 -5 0.0 0.00
2009-10 NY Red Bulls 0 1 1 3 4 -1 0.0 0.50
2010-11 Los Angeles 1 1 0 3 5 -2 50.0 1.50
Total 1 4 1 7 15 -8 16.7 0.67
OtherChivas made it into the tournament in 2007-08 because New England won the US Open Cup and lost the MLS Cup game. Houston qualified in 2009-10 because Columbus won the double the year before. It's hard to draw any conclusions with the data so heavily concentrated in one season.
Team W L T GF GA DIF Win% PPG
2007-08 Chivas USA 0 1 1 1 3 -2 0.0 0.50
2009-10 Houston 2 3 1 9 8 1 33.3 1.17
Total 2 4 2 10 11 -1 25.0 1.00
Supporters' Shield WinnersHere's an interesting one. If DC United doesn't flame out in the inaugural tournament, the results come out much differently. When you remove their stats, the Points Per Game rises to 1.38, which puts the Supporters Shield winners just behind the MLS Cup Winners.
Team W L T GF GA DIF Win% PPG
2007-08 DC United 0 5 1 4 13 -9 0.0 0.17
2009-10 Columbus 2 3 3 9 14 -5 25.0 1.13
2010-11 Columbus 4 3 1 11 8 3 50.0 1.63
Total 6 11 5 24 35 -11 27.3 1.05
US Open Cup WinnersTruthfully I thought these numbers would be much worse, as it seems like many MLS teams don't take the Open Cup very seriously. As it turns out, the numbers are faily 'meh' - not horrible, not great. 1.17 Points Per Game is good enough for second best.
Team W L T GF GA DIF Win% PPG
2007-08 New England 0 2 0 1 6 -5 0.0 0.00
2009-10 DC United 4 2 2 14 10 4 50.0 1.75
2010-11 Seattle 2 5 1 8 12 -4 25.0 0.88
Total 6 9 3 23 28 -5 33.3 1.17
MLS Cup Champions The MLS Cup Winners have actually had the best success, buoyed in part by the great run by Real Salt Lake in the most recent edition of the tournament. Maybe the playoffs prove something after all.
Team W L T GF GA DIF Win% PPG
2007-08 Houston 2 2 4 10 13 -3 25.0 1.25
2009-10 Columbus 2 3 3 9 14 -5 25.0 1.13
2010-11 Real Salt Lake 6 3 3 26 17 9 50.0 1.75
Total 10 8 10 45 44 1 35.7 1.43
